The Changing Racial and Ethnic Composition of the U.S. Electorate

The upcoming 2020 presidential election has drawn renewed awareness to how demographic shifts across the United States have modified the composition of the electorate.

In all fifty states, the share of non-Hispanic White eligible voters declined between 2000 and 2018, with 10 states dealing with double-digit drops in the share of White eligible voters. During that identical interval, Hispanic voters have come to make up ever more larger shares of the electorate in every single point out. These gains are particularly substantial in the Southwestern U.S., exactly where states like Nevada, California and Texas have witnessed fast expansion in the Hispanic share of the electorate over an eighteen-year interval.

These tendencies are also particularly noteworthy in battleground states – this kind of as Florida and Arizona – that are very likely to be critical in selecting the 2020 election. In Florida, two-in-ten eligible voters in 2018 have been Hispanic, just about double the share in 2000. And in the rising battleground point out of Arizona, Hispanic older people produced up about one particular-quarter (24{bf9f37f88ebac789d8dc87fbc534dfd7d7e1a7f067143a484fc5af4e53e0d2c5}) of all eligible voters in 2018, up eight proportion points due to the fact 2000.

To be sure, the demographic composition of an spot does not convey to the total tale. Styles in voter registration and voter turnout differ commonly by race and ethnicity, with White older people historically extra very likely to be registered to vote and to convert out to vote than other racial and ethnic teams. Additionally, every single presidential election brings its possess one of a kind set of situation, from the personal traits of the candidates, to the economic system, to historic occasions this kind of as a world pandemic. Even now, knowing the changing racial and ethnic composition in critical states allows to provide clues for how political winds may shift over time.

Black, Hispanic and Asian registered voters historically lean Democratic

The strategies in which these demographic shifts might shape electoral results are closely joined to the unique partisan tastes of distinctive racial and ethnic teams. Pew Exploration Middle survey facts spanning extra than two many years reveals that the Democratic Get together maintains a wide and prolonged-standing advantage between Black, Hispanic and Asian American registered voters. Among White voters, the partisan stability has been frequently stable over the previous ten years, with the Republican Get together holding a slight advantage.

National exit polling facts tells a identical tale to partisan identification, with White voters demonstrating a slight and rather reliable preference toward Republican candidates in presidential elections over the past forty several years, when Black voters have solidly supported the Democratic contenders. Hispanic voters have also historically been extra very likely to help Democrats than Republican candidates, though their help has not been as reliable as that of Black voters.

These racial and ethnic teams are by no signifies monolithic. There is a prosperous variety of sights and encounters inside of these teams, at times varying primarily based on state of origin. For instance, Pew Exploration Center’s 2018 National Study of Latinos found that Hispanic eligible voters of Puerto Rican and/or Mexican descent – no matter of voter registration position – have been extra very likely than those of Cuban descent to identify as Democrats or lean toward the Democratic Get together (sixty five{bf9f37f88ebac789d8dc87fbc534dfd7d7e1a7f067143a484fc5af4e53e0d2c5} of Puerto Rican Us citizens and 59{bf9f37f88ebac789d8dc87fbc534dfd7d7e1a7f067143a484fc5af4e53e0d2c5} of Mexican Us citizens vs. 37{bf9f37f88ebac789d8dc87fbc534dfd7d7e1a7f067143a484fc5af4e53e0d2c5} of Cuban Us citizens recognized as Democrats). A bulk of Cuban eligible voters recognized as or leaned toward the Republican Get together (fifty seven{bf9f37f88ebac789d8dc87fbc534dfd7d7e1a7f067143a484fc5af4e53e0d2c5}).

Among the Asian American registered voters, there are also some variances in occasion identification by origin team. For instance, Vietnamese Us citizens are extra very likely than Asians all round to identify as Republican, when the reverse is real between Indian Us citizens, who are inclined to lean extra Democratic.

Provided these variances inside of racial and ethnic teams, the relative share of distinctive origin teams inside of a distinct point out can impression the partisan leanings of that state’s electorate. For instance, in Florida, Republican-leaning Cubans experienced historically been the biggest Hispanic origin team. Nevertheless, over the previous ten years, the extra Democratic-leaning Puerto Ricans have been the state’s fastest-rising Hispanic-origin team, and they now rival Cubans in size. At the identical time, in states like California and Nevada, Mexican Us citizens, who are inclined to lean Democratic, are the dominant Hispanic origin team.

Partisan alignment does not convey to the total tale when it arrives to voting designs. Voter turnout rates – or the share of U.S. citizens ages eighteen and older who forged a ballot – also differ commonly across racial and ethnic teams. White older people historically have experienced the optimum rate of voter turnout: About two-thirds of eligible White older people (sixty five{bf9f37f88ebac789d8dc87fbc534dfd7d7e1a7f067143a484fc5af4e53e0d2c5}) voted in the 2016 election. Black older people have also historically experienced reasonably high rates of voter turnout, though ordinarily a bit decrease than White older people. There was an exception to this sample in 2008 and 2012, when Black voter turnout matched or exceeded that of Whites. By distinction, Asian and Hispanic older people have experienced historically decrease voter turnout rates, with about half reporting that they voted in 2016.

White and Black older people are also extra very likely than Hispanic and Asian older people to say that they are registered to vote.

Non-White eligible voters accounted for extra than 3-quarters of complete U.S. electorate expansion due to the fact 2000

The non-White voting populace has performed a substantial purpose in driving expansion in the nation’s electorate. From 2000 to 2018, the nation’s eligible voter populace grew from 193.four million to 233.seven million – an enhance of forty.3 million. Voters who are Hispanic, Black, Asian or an additional race or ethnicity accounted for extra than 3-quarters (76{bf9f37f88ebac789d8dc87fbc534dfd7d7e1a7f067143a484fc5af4e53e0d2c5}) of this expansion.

The significant proportion place enhance of voters who are not White as a share of the country’s all round electorate was largely driven by 2nd-generation Us citizens – the U.S.-born kids of immigrants – coming of age, as well as immigrants naturalizing and becoming eligible to vote. The enhance has been steady over the previous eighteen several years – from 2000 to 2010, their share rose by four proportion points (from 24{bf9f37f88ebac789d8dc87fbc534dfd7d7e1a7f067143a484fc5af4e53e0d2c5} to 28{bf9f37f88ebac789d8dc87fbc534dfd7d7e1a7f067143a484fc5af4e53e0d2c5}), when from 2010 to 2018, their share further more grew by 5 points (up from 28{bf9f37f88ebac789d8dc87fbc534dfd7d7e1a7f067143a484fc5af4e53e0d2c5} to 33{bf9f37f88ebac789d8dc87fbc534dfd7d7e1a7f067143a484fc5af4e53e0d2c5}).

Hispanic eligible voters have been notably the biggest contributors to the electorate’s rise. They by yourself accounted for 39{bf9f37f88ebac789d8dc87fbc534dfd7d7e1a7f067143a484fc5af4e53e0d2c5} of the all round enhance of the nation’s eligible voting populace. Hispanic voters produced up thirteen{bf9f37f88ebac789d8dc87fbc534dfd7d7e1a7f067143a484fc5af4e53e0d2c5} of the country’s all round electorate in 2018 – just about doubling from seven{bf9f37f88ebac789d8dc87fbc534dfd7d7e1a7f067143a484fc5af4e53e0d2c5} in 2000. The population’s share grew steadily due to the fact 2000, with identical proportion place expansion noticed between 2000 and 2010 (3 points) and 2010 and 2018 (3 points).

The Hispanic electorate’s expansion mostly stemmed from their U.S.-born populace coming of age. The twelve.four million Hispanics who turned eighteen between 2000 and 2018 accounted for eighty{bf9f37f88ebac789d8dc87fbc534dfd7d7e1a7f067143a484fc5af4e53e0d2c5} of the expansion between the population’s eligible voters in the course of those several years. The group’s sustained expansion over the previous two many years will make Hispanics the projected biggest minority team between U.S. eligible voters in 2020 for the to start with time in a presidential election.

Asian eligible voters also saw a important rise in their numbers, expanding from four.6 million in 2000 to 10.3 million in 2018. And identical to Hispanics, their just about two-ten years expansion has been reasonably reliable. The population’s share in the electorate grew at identical rates from 2000 to 2010 and from 2010 to 2018 (1 place every single). In 2018, Asian eligible voters produced up four{bf9f37f88ebac789d8dc87fbc534dfd7d7e1a7f067143a484fc5af4e53e0d2c5} of the nation’s electorate (up from two{bf9f37f88ebac789d8dc87fbc534dfd7d7e1a7f067143a484fc5af4e53e0d2c5} in 2000), the smallest share out of all main racial and ethnic teams. Naturalized immigrants – a team that tends to make up two-thirds of the Asian American electorate – are the key driver of the Asian electorate’s expansion. From 2000 to 2018, the range of naturalized Asian immigrant voters extra than doubled – from 3.3 million to 6.9 million – and their expansion by yourself accounted for sixty four{bf9f37f88ebac789d8dc87fbc534dfd7d7e1a7f067143a484fc5af4e53e0d2c5} of the all round expansion in the Asian electorate.

Despite noteworthy expansion in the non-White eligible voter populace, non-Hispanic White voters nevertheless produced up the substantial bulk (67{bf9f37f88ebac789d8dc87fbc534dfd7d7e1a7f067143a484fc5af4e53e0d2c5}) of the U.S. electorate in 2018. Nevertheless, they saw the smallest expansion rate out of all racial ethnic teams from 2000 to 2018, leading to their share to shrink by just about 10 proportion points.

Shares of non-Hispanic White eligible voters have declined in all fifty states

The all round decline in the shares of the non-Hispanic White eligible voter populace can be noticed across all states. (There hasn’t been a decline in the District of Columbia.) Even though this development is not new, it is participating in out to varying levels across the state, with some states dealing with particularly important shifts in the racial and ethnic composition of their electorate.

In complete between 2000 and 2018, 10 states saw a 10 proportion place or larger decline in the share of White eligible voters. In Nevada, the White share of the electorate fell eighteen proportion points over almost two many years, the biggest drop between all fifty states. The decline in the White share of the electorate in Nevada has been rather steady, with a comparable proportion place decline noticed between 2000 and 2010 (10 points) and 2010 and 2018 (eight points). California has expert a equally sharp decline in the White share of the electorate, dropping 15 proportion points due to the fact 2000. This has resulted in California changing from a bulk White electorate in 2000 to a point out exactly where White voters have been a minority share of the electorate in 2018 (60{bf9f37f88ebac789d8dc87fbc534dfd7d7e1a7f067143a484fc5af4e53e0d2c5} in 2000 to 45{bf9f37f88ebac789d8dc87fbc534dfd7d7e1a7f067143a484fc5af4e53e0d2c5} in 2018), though they nevertheless are the biggest racial or ethnic team in the electorate.

Even with declines in all fifty states, White eligible voters nevertheless make up the bulk of most states’ electorates. In 47 states, over half of eligible voters are White. The only exceptions are California, New Mexico and Hawaii, exactly where White voters account for 45{bf9f37f88ebac789d8dc87fbc534dfd7d7e1a7f067143a484fc5af4e53e0d2c5}, forty three{bf9f37f88ebac789d8dc87fbc534dfd7d7e1a7f067143a484fc5af4e53e0d2c5} and twenty five{bf9f37f88ebac789d8dc87fbc534dfd7d7e1a7f067143a484fc5af4e53e0d2c5} of every single respective state’s electorate.

As mirrored on the countrywide stage, Hispanic eligible voters have been the principal motorists of the racial and ethnic diversification of most states’ electorates. In 39 states between 2000 and 2018, Hispanic eligible voters saw the biggest proportion place enhance as opposed with any other racial or ethnic team. In 3 more states – Alaska, Kentucky and Ohio – Hispanic voters have been tied with an additional racial team for the optimum enhance. Five states that noticed the biggest expansion in Hispanic shares in their electorates have been California (eleven proportion points), Nevada (10 points), Florida (9 points), Arizona (eight points) and Texas (eight points).

The range of Black eligible voters nationwide grew only a bit in the previous eighteen several years. Even so, Black voters saw the biggest proportion place enhance out of any other racial and ethnic team in 3 states in the Southeast: Ga (5 points), Delaware (four points) and Mississippi (four points).

As for Asian eligible voters, they saw sturdy expansion in California (5 proportion points), Nevada and New Jersey (four points every single) between 2000 and 2018. Nevertheless, their share boosts paled in comparison to the Hispanic electorate’s expansion in those states. General, Asians saw their shares enhance in the electorates of every single point out apart from Hawaii, exactly where their share dropped by four proportion points. Even now, Hawaii has the optimum proportion of Asians in its electorate – 38{bf9f37f88ebac789d8dc87fbc534dfd7d7e1a7f067143a484fc5af4e53e0d2c5} of all eligible voters in the point out are Asian.

Racial and ethnic improve between eligible voters in battleground states

As the 2020 presidential election draws near, these demographic shifts are particularly noteworthy in some critical battleground states, exactly where variations in the composition of the electorate could have an impression on electoral results.

Nationally, Florida and Arizona saw the 3rd- and fourth-biggest declines in the shares of non-Hispanic White eligible voters. The White shares of the electorate in those states every single stood at about six-in-ten in 2018, down from about 3-quarters at the start of the century. Four other battleground states – Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Wisconsin and Michigan – also saw declines in the share of White eligible voters between 2000 and 2018, though to a lesser extent.

In Florida, a point out that has been pivotal to every single U.S. presidential victory in the past 20 several years, the White share of the electorate has fallen thirteen proportion points due to the fact 2000. At the identical time, the Hispanic share of the electorate has absent up 9 points, increasing from eleven{bf9f37f88ebac789d8dc87fbc534dfd7d7e1a7f067143a484fc5af4e53e0d2c5} of eligible Florida voters in 2000 to 20{bf9f37f88ebac789d8dc87fbc534dfd7d7e1a7f067143a484fc5af4e53e0d2c5} in 2018. During this identical interval, the Black share of the electorate in Florida has increased two proportion points and the Asian share has increased by 1 place.

Arizona, largely witnessed as an rising battleground point out, has witnessed significant improve to the racial and ethnic composition of its electorate. Hispanic older people now make up about one particular-quarter of all eligible voters (24{bf9f37f88ebac789d8dc87fbc534dfd7d7e1a7f067143a484fc5af4e53e0d2c5}), an eight-place enhance due to the fact 2000.

Several battleground states have witnessed lesser – though nevertheless likely meaningful – variations to the demographic composition of the electorate. In Pennsylvania, the White share of the electorate fell seven proportion points when the Hispanic share of the electorate rose 3 points from 2000 to 2018. And in North Carolina, a point out that voted for Donald Trump in 2016 and formerly went for Barack Obama, George W. Bush and Invoice Clinton, the White share of the electorate fell from 75{bf9f37f88ebac789d8dc87fbc534dfd7d7e1a7f067143a484fc5af4e53e0d2c5} in 2000 to 69{bf9f37f88ebac789d8dc87fbc534dfd7d7e1a7f067143a484fc5af4e53e0d2c5} in 2018. During the identical time interval, the Hispanic share of the electorate rose to four{bf9f37f88ebac789d8dc87fbc534dfd7d7e1a7f067143a484fc5af4e53e0d2c5} (up 3 points due to the fact 2000) and the Black share of the electorate rose to 22{bf9f37f88ebac789d8dc87fbc534dfd7d7e1a7f067143a484fc5af4e53e0d2c5} (up 1 place due to the fact 2000).

Demographic variations could proceed to reshape the electoral landscape in potential elections. Even though Texas is not at the moment viewed as a battleground point out, demographic shifts have led some to ponder if the point out could come to be extra competitive politically down the street. In 2018, 3-in-ten eligible voters in Texas have been Hispanic – that’s up eight proportion points due to the fact 2000. During that identical time, the share of White eligible voters in Texas fell twelve points, from sixty two{bf9f37f88ebac789d8dc87fbc534dfd7d7e1a7f067143a484fc5af4e53e0d2c5} in 2000 to a bare bulk (fifty one{bf9f37f88ebac789d8dc87fbc534dfd7d7e1a7f067143a484fc5af4e53e0d2c5}) in 2018.